It's about time... Ars vs. Sun

wow, so my first off season since having ago at this trading lark and "jeez it 'aint half dragged!".

I did very well out of the Euro's. Didn't post anything about it as work combined with watching as much of it as I could pretty much sucked up my time. I'll tell you something for free... The hardest thing about blogging your sports trading is the blogging bit! Fair play to these people who day in day out put up content!

So, Euros done, Olympics over and we're on to the English Prem and other European Leagues. Now this is what I have been looking forward too. Having caught the back end of last season as my first adventure into sports trading I'm very much looking forward to hitting this season from the start.

Using my knowledge of the English prem the first thing that shouts out at me is "The opening games always seems to throw up a few surprises", and its true. Players not yet fit, new partnerships at CB, in midfield or up front. You can't rely on last seasons form to guide you so picking games is hard.

I'll be keeping an eye out for Lay the Draw opportunities in game and that's about it.

One pre kickoff trade I have put on is one I've called the Bright Cover, it's a 20% ROI trade outlined below.

I got these odds yesterday on Betfair and I notice today you can get slightly better odds #typical!

As you can see, I don't want 3-2... I also don't want Arsenal to score 4 or more but then I don't think they will. Any Sunderland result will return a profit as well as all the Correct Score. The key here is that Arsenal have such a low lay price, whilst I think they will win the odds for the correct scores give us an option to play with.

Also on a side note, I'm not really tracking my £50 challenge anymore. I think it's very clear that what I've been doing brings a profit in.

Have a good weekend.

Epic Fail!!

My little test was indeed an epic fail.

ManU vs Villa I came up 50p in the red
Sunderland vs Wolves I was £3 in the red
Norwich vs Man City I was £1.14 in the green

So a total loss of  £3.36

Had Wolves or Sunderland nicked a goal I would have been in a good place. It also goes to show that it's not worth it with odds so short, such as Uniteds.
I made a fundamental mistake when working out the returns on the bets and not taking into account the cost of putting the bet on! school boy error 

Current status for my betting £50 challenge.
Balance    £60.02
P/L    £10.02
P/L %    20%
Won    £72.09
Lost    £62.07


I had a go at some sports trading with the Chelsea vs Spurs game. Laying off Chelsea for the win at 0-1 with a liability of £5.30
When Spurs scored to make it 1-2 I had the chance to cash out at a loss of 14p but stayed in for the education. I ended up losing it all but I learnt something so it wasn't a complete loss.
 I'm going to take that from my £50 Trading pot... so I'm at £44.70 for my Buy/Sell
I've had a good chat with Fed (check his blog out) around what I did and why it happened so I have a rough idea going into my next trading adventure what I want to do and when I should pull out.

All betting odds are paddypower.com and all trading are betfair.com

Two cheeky double accumulator on bottom of the table teams too lose and the strong FA cup teams.

I've put £3.01 on Cheltnham to beat Daganham & Red Bridge in the English NPower League 2 (11/10) and for Aston villa to beat Wigan in the English Premiership (13/8)
(odds from paddypower.com)
Both Wigan and Daganham aren't doing too well so I'm looking for a save win by betting on them to lose.

£3.01 will return £15.08... not a bad £12.07 profit.

As its FA cup weekend I've also put on £2.17 for Arsenal to beat Sunderland (7/5) and for Chelsea to beat Birmingham (3/10)
(odds from paddypower.com)
My thinking here is that both Arsenal and Chelsea don't have much else to play for. Neither will win the League and neither are doing well in Europe so the FA cup is a good chance for them to get a trophy. I would be surprised if they don't both put out a strong teams.

£2.17 will return £6.77 which is a £4.60 profit.